From Sober Recovery:
If you really want a rough estimate that sort of gives a decent answer to the question, you can always say “about 5% stay sober.” This is not far from the truth. In all actuality, you can see a sort of drop off rate as people try to stay sober for longer and longer. In other words, if 100 people try to get sober, about 5% of them will make it to 90 days sober.
Now take all of the people who made it to 90 days sober. About 5% of THOSE people will make it to 2 years sober. About 5% of THOSE people will make it to 4 years sober.
10% have issues, only 13% get treated.
Town of 1,000,000
100,000 folks with drinking issues.
13% get help, or 13,000 people
5% sober after 90 days, or 650 people
5% sober after two years, or 32 people
5% sober after four years, or 1.6 people
Holy shit. Two people out of 100,000 folks with drinking issues will remain sober after four years.
Holy shit indeed.